Friday, December 16, 2016

The Set-ups Are There

Not much commentary today besides the fact that I feel like the set-up are there, they just need to trigger and follow through which they have been doing somewhat.

I have an interest in these stocks if and only if the go through yesterday highs plus .10 cents.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

The FED Is Out Of The Way, Now What

The FED raised rates yesterday, the DOW continues to flirt with media grabbing 20k level, energy companies took advantage of the recent rip in oil to announce $2-billion dollars in secondary and the year is coming to an end.

The indices were down across the board, the negative action took place after the FED meeting. Gold (-1.47%) and the gold miners (GDX -5.47%, GDXJ -6.40%) were the biggest losers, and they are following through this morning.

Looking at the big picture, the SP500 is still trading well above its recent 2.7-year breakout as you can see in the chart below. In other words, if your timeframe is longer than a few days then things are fine. Pullbacks will happen, but as long as we stay above, 2,080 things will be okay.


With that being said; below are the stocks on my watchlist today, I have an interest in these stocks on the long side if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Checking In On Travel Centers

I don't usually discuss individual stocks, but when I do, it's because I feel very strongly about them.  I've highlighted three stocks in the last year; ATSG, AAWW, and NTDOY just recently.

ATSG and AAWW are two Amazon derivative plays that can be huge benefactors of Amazon's dominance for quarters to come; you can see the original write up here.

Nintendo is one we recently highlighted at $29 due to their recent release of the NES CLASSIC, which is turning out to be a huge hit. Write up here.

I want to introduce you to TravelCenters;

TravelCenters has been in business for over 40 years; their business includes 255 truck stops, 233 convenience stores and 52 standalone restaurants across 43 states.




They operate under'; Travel Centers, PETRO, MINI-MART, QUACKER STEAK & LUBE, BEST WINGS USA.

The Travel Centers group operates 750 restaurants (popeyes, subway, etc.) and food outlets and 52 standalone restaurants

The fact is, you probably can't drive down a major highway without passing one of their locations.







Total Revenue quarter ending September 2016, $5.4 billion.
Fuel: $3.4 billion, Non-fuel: $1.9 billion.

December of last year TravelCenters rebuffed a $14 bid from Golden Gate Capital.



Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

WTI, Insider Plunges In

W&T Offshore is an independent oil and natural gas producer in the Gulf of Mexico. It holds interests in approximately 54 offshore fields, interests in roughly 900,000 gross acres and it has total proved reserves of 76.4 million barrels of oil equivalent.

What's interesting about the stock at this very moment is not only the fact oil is surging higher due to the recent Opec deal in which W&T could be a major benefactor. But, it's the recent insider buy by the Chairman & CEO Tracy Krohn. On December 7 (last week) Tracy bought 1,000,000 of WTI at $1.94, on December 8th he bought 180,888 shares also at $1.94 bringing the amount of shares that he owns in a total to 42,642,712 shares.


According to Finviz and Yahoo W&T Offshore has roughly 137 million shares outstanding, 92 million in the float and 11% of that float is short with a short interest ratio of around 11 days.

Hedge Funds also showed an interest in the stock; only six hedge funds owned WTI at the end of the second quarter; that number was boosted to 10 as of 9/30/16.


The stock has been in a downtrend for a very long time, but it is finally showing some signs of life; the first time in a while the is trading above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The 50-day is now curling higher, and the 200-day is flattening out.


Bottom line; when you put all the pieces together; OPEC deal, oil surging, oil stocks surging, insider buying, CEO owns a bulk of the float, high short interest, renewed hedge fund interest, long-term downtrend coming to a halt, above its intermediate and long-term moving average, and you have the potential of the beginning of something big starting.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

A Halt In the Action

My rolling 5-day watchlist is my best barometer for the health of the market in the short-term. It tells me if stocks are moving, how they are moving, and also hints at different themes that might be in play; particular sectors, highly shorted stocks, whether there is good follow through or not, etc..

Based on the way I look at charts and what I consider buyable set-ups, the stocks that have made my list over the last 5-days have had poor performance.

With that being said, below is my watchlist for today; I have an interest in these stocks if and only if they go through the high they printed yesterday.


We have a jammed pack week, Fed meeting, and quadruple witching, these two events, specifically the Fed meeting can and will probably have an impact on over the short-term.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Top 20 Industries

Here are the top 20 industries based on 65-day momentum. There are a ton of reasons why you should track the top 20 industries, the most important one; a large part of a stock's move is due to the performance of the industry.


If you make a watchlist with all the names within these industries you will come up with roughly 826 names if you overlay a simple filter to narrow down the list like; no more than 4% above or below its 20-day moving average you will narrow the list to 51. Now you have a workable list for today.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Up and Away

Same tune, just another day. The market has certainly forgotten what a down day is, we continue to grind higher making it difficult to buy aggressively. We all know that a down day is coming, everyone expects it, but I'm sure when it comes they'll be shocked.

As I go through my scans, I've noticed that many small biotech stocks are holding up well, a lot better than the sentiment surrounding the sector. Stocks like XON, AMAG, ZIOP, have been trading sideways for a few months and are just emerging from their possible first stage bases. Biotechs like AERI, CLCD, have been immune to the recent biotech sell-off. The one issue that I have with biotechs is obviously the fact that on any given day you can walk into a huge gap down making owning the ETF a much safer bet.

Below are the stocks on my list today; I have an interest in these stocks if and only if they go through yesterday's highs.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Red Hot Momentum

Big day yesterday, things were quiet and then at 1:00 pm the fireworks went off. The most interesting thing about yesterday was the fact that the SP500 (up huge), BONDS, GOLD, and Volatility were all up. A rare event. At certain times, breadth becomes so hot in the short term that it actually becomes a negative, we are there now. And to reiterate what I've been saying over the last couple of days; the longer your timeframe, the more irrelevant breadth, and sentiment measures are. Aggressively putting on new trades is a little tough.

When SP500 gains 1% or more and VIX gains 3% or more. HT @SJD10304


Here is another study, old but still a good one to know. From Quantifiable edges.


Below is my list for the day, I have an interest in these stocks if and only if they go through yesterday's high. IPO's have started to percolate, I will keep a very close eye on TPIC today.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Price Trumps Sentiment and Breadth

The market continues to march higher disregarding many breadth measures and sentiment measures that at times have put a short-term halt to previous rallies. Breadth and sentiment measures like everything else, matter certain times and certain times they don't. However, these measures make it a little harder to press on the gas in the short-term. What I do know is; that the longer your timeframe, the more irrelevant these measures are.

With that being said, below is my watchlist. I have an interest in these stocks/ETF's if and only if they go through yesterday's high. I will be keeping a very close eye on GLD and the Miners via JNUG and NUGT.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Lions Gate

Lions Gate Entertainment engages in motion picture production and distribution, television programming and syndication, home entertainment, branded channel platforms, interactive ventures and games, and location-based entertainment in Canada, the United States, and Internationally.

Lions Gate the stock has been trading sideways for 10-months after a prolonged decline in which sellers were in complete control. Over the last 10-months, the buyers and sellers have seemed to found equilibrium and the buyers are taking control as you can see in the chart below.


I have always been a big fan of long bases because typically a prolonged period of contraction leads to an extended period of expansion. Stan Weinstein, the author of Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, has the best definition for a stock's basing area.

The Basing Area: "After XYZ has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What's actually taking place is that buyers and sellers are starting to move into equilibrium, whereas previously the sellers were far stronger, which is why the stock had plummeted. Volume will usually lessen--dry up--as a base forms. But often volume will start to expand late stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any significant price concession."

What's also interesting about Lions Gate is the two huge insider buys by an insider who bought a total of 90k shares, a $2-million dollar investment. There's a million reason why you sell a stock but only one reason why you buy'em.

TRADE; Own the stock going through and holding $24, stop at $22.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Friday, December 2, 2016

You Chase You Lose

Tale of two markets, financials, and the energy names were the standouts yesterday while everything else took a beating.  The Semiconductors wiped out their entire post-election rally in 2-days. I can't say this enough; DON'T CHASE, this ain't the 90's.


The biotech sector has retraced their post-election ramp as well. Chances of seeing a retracement in the financials are high.


My best short-term barometer for swing trades is my rolling 5-day watchlist and that has been dead. A majority of the stocks are not even triggering (going through the previous day high).

Below are the stocks on my watchlist today, I have an interest in these stocks if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Miners In Focus

My rolling 5-day watchlist which is my best short-term market barometer for swing trading has been weak.

Oil and oil stocks were the talk of the town yesterday, and there's seem to be some follow through this morning.

We have a lot of stocks extended in the short-term, and they need a little rest to set-up properly. How extended you might be asking, take a look at this chart;

Nasdaq vs. stocks up 25% or more in the last month.

Like every indicator, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

Below is my watchlist for the day, I have an interest in these stocks/ETF's if and only if they go through yesterday's high with a special focus on the miners.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Oil In Focus

The big news of the day so far is OPEC agreeing to cut 1.2m barrels per day. Crude enjoyed most of its gains before the news hit.


Individual stock momentum has waned a little bit, and my best short-term market barometer for the market is my 5-day rolling watchlist, and that has been weak. That can obviously change in a heart beat and just tells you that it ain't always sunshine and rainbows.

Below are the stocks on my watchlist that I have an interest in getting long if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


A majority of stocks move in spurts, after a period of consolidation they tend to breakout in the direction of the preceding trend, the spurt typically lasts 3-5 days, here's an example;


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

We live in a world in which we are bombarded with information, tweets, blogs, etc., content is the new salesman, content is the new marketing, content is the new networking. With information being so readily available, bloggers try to differentiate themselves with their writing skills, volume, and consistency, putting out blog posts to meet quotas. We are seeking to stand out from the crowd by showing performance, by taking all the information and seeking alpha, that’s the sole purpose of the blog. It won’t always be pretty; it’s never easy, and performance is spotty, but we seek superior risk-adjusted returns, not notoriety for our writing skills.  If this is something you can relate to, then this blog is for you.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Red Hot Momentum

Oil stocks are under pressure this morning, there's a big OPEC meeting tomorrow that will probably dictate the short-term movement of oil stocks.

Market continues to be extended by many measures, that at times means something other times it doesn't. The longer your time frame the more irrelevant these short-term measures are.  One interesting breadth measure that confirms that we are extended is Pradeep Bonde (Stockbee) breadth measure of how many stocks are up +50% or more in the last month.  That number is now at 35, typically above 20 signifies a hot market and this when momentum starts to wane.


With the above being said; the questions as trader that you ask yourself are;

  • Do you take the trades at regular size and disregard the breadth numbers? 
  • Do you reduce size to take into account the breadth numbers? 
  • Or do you not take any trades until we consolidate further? 
  • Fact is, we won't know what is the correct thing to do until after the fact.
Below are the stocks on my watchlist today that I have an interest in on the long side if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Monday, November 28, 2016

A Handful Of Names To Watch



Like I said in the previous post, by many measures the market is short-term extended, sideways to down action would be healthy and there's a limited amount of decent risk reward entries.

With that being said, OLED, LC, FELP, PI, YRD, EDIT, are the names on my long only watch-list today. I have an interest in these names if and only if they go through their previous day high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Scarcity

As far as the way I see things we have a very limited amount of decent risk reward entries; this is no surprise given the straight up move we have witnessed since the election. Sideways action would do wonders to a lot of charts and set them up better for a second move higher. Holding on to your current holdings and or waiting for some corrective price action via price or time is probably your best bet as a swing trader.

With that being said, below you can have the Top 20 Sectors based on 3-month momentum. This is always good to know since a bulk of a stock's move is correlated to its sector/industry move.


Most of the individual stocks within the above sectors are extended in the short-term.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Keeping Track Of Potential Big Movers

LGF, HAWK, BERY, EGOV, XON are stocks that are trying to emerge from bases. I'm always intrigued by bases because typically a prolonged period of contraction leads to an extended period of expansion. We have covered bases extensively here (SEE BELOW) on the blog, and they are one if not my favorite set-up.

Stan Weinstein, the author of Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets, has a great definition the "basing area," specifically the one's that are formed after several down months.

The Basing Area: "After XYZ has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What's actually taking place is that buyers and sellers are starting to move into equilibrium, whereas previously the sellers were far stronger, which is why the stock had plummeted. Volume will usually lessen--dry up--as a base forms. But often volume will start to expand late stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any significant price concession."






Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Friday, November 18, 2016

What A Small Pullback Would Do

The market continues to grind higher, low-risk are scarce and a small pullback would do wonders to many charts.

CTRV, OI, TA, QCOM, GILD, are the names on my long only watchlist that are of interest if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Thursday, November 17, 2016

All The Way Up

The indices have been grinding higher over the last two weeks, the stocks that took off initially (bio's, small caps, financials) have slowed down a little over the last two days allowing the post-election losers to bounce a little, specifically FANG.

CTRV, AKAM, OI, FMSA, PYPL, TWTR, MPC, YELP , CYOU, QCOM, are the names on my long watchlist today. These stocks are actionable to me if and only if they go through yesterday's high.


Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Nintendo Is Turning Back The Clock

Nintendo has turned back the clock by re-releasing the original Nintendo console, now called NES mini, fully downloaded with 30 games. So far it has been an absolute hit, sold out everywhere (partly due to limited supply) and selling on Ebay for over for over $200, the original price is $60. The NES Classic without a doubt is the Christmas gift to have for those who grew up playing the original Nintendo.



My opinion is subject to change as new information comes in.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463. 


Saturday, November 12, 2016

Epic Week

It was an unforgettable week for Wall Street and Main Street. It all started Tuesday night, as Trump chances of winning was becoming clearer the dimmer the Futures were looking. At around 11 pm when it was almost clear that he would be the new President the SP500 futures were limit down -5%.


One has to wonder if Hillary had won if the reaction would've been the exact opposite; limit up first and then limit down.

Leading up to the elections there was a lot of put buying, and one can argue that many were caught off guard on the short side and then were forced to cover.



Small caps, Biotechnology, Industrials, and Copper were the standouts on the positive side. FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Apple, and many other technology stocks were the clear losers, along with Gold, Gold Miners, Bonds, and Emerging Markets. The huge moves in the winners and losers this week probably was overdone. These are 'bigly' moves are based on hope and possibilities of what can change with the new administration, changes that may or may not happen, and regardless it's way too soon.

Suddenly, a couple of legendary (Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller) investors who have been bearish for years turned bullish and are now confident about the market/economy and our new elect President. In hindsight, their bearish view now looks more like it was political more than anything else. Three days in and suddenly a Trump presidency detoured the U.S economy for these guys? By looking at Icahn's stock any change is good, look below.


The small-cap index had a helluva week, the type of rally it had this week typically only happens when you are in a deep bear market. It seems like they try to price in 4-years of a Trumpstatic economy in 3 days.


The overly enthuse will think this will be a non-stop move higher, but the tendency of the last few years has been for the market to stall and turn down after touching highs.  Here you have the stats when the Small Cap index has had a winning streak of 5-days or more.

Courtesy of Schaeffer's Research

The case for the move higher in biotechs/pharma this week was the fact that the Republicans won the house and that Hillary lost, maybe the new administration won't come down as hard on them for price gouging.  Another reason for the bullishness this week might be the fact that U.S. based pharma companies have $98-billion overseas that might have to come back into the U.S. and that could lead to significant acquisitions in the sector. For more on this click here.

The fear in the FANG stocks might come from comments Trump made during his campaign. Fear that they may have to bring back all the cash they have overseas and pay a massive tax bill, or it could just be a huge rotation into stocks that might benefit more under the new elect, I think it is way too early to come to a conclusion.

The market is very dynamic, and it never pays to have firm opinions based on what you think is going to happen.

Here is a possible playbook based on previous presidential cycles;

For more on Presidential cycle patterns click here.

Frank Zorrilla, Registered Advisor In New York. If you need a second opinion, suggestions, and or feedback in regards to the market feel free to reach me at fzorrilla@zorcapital.com or 646-480-7463.